Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?

Foretrace AI research

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$197.1K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCFeb 23, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds100%

Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Feb 23, 2025
Yes bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to tale place February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Left (Die Linke) makes it into the Bundestag as a parliamentary group (Fraktion) as a result of the 2025 German Parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the next German parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". Under current German parliamentary law, “a parliamentary group [fraktion] can be formed by at least five percent of the members of the Bundestag who belong to the same party” (see: https://www.bundestag.de/services/glossar/glossar/F/fraktionen-444784). This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).