A forecast you can examine.

The assessment

The latest FOMC action (September 16, 2026) was a unanimous 12-0 vote to raise the target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, with the statement citing elevated inflation and a commitment to price stability. August 2026 PCE data show inflation still well above target (3.4% y/y headline, 3.0% y/y core), and Governor Barr stated inflation is not clearly trending toward target in a timely way and that further policy adjustments are likely needed in his base case. This tilts toward another hike in October, making 'no change' less likely than not. However, the October meeting is roughly six weeks after September, and the FOMC will not have the September PCE report (scheduled for release October 29, after the meeting); the August data is the latest they will see. A single month of softer core PCE (0.2% m/m) and the absence of a clear disinflation trend could support a pause, and the FOMC may prefer to wait for more data given elevated uncertainty. The probability of no change is estimated at ~35%, with wide uncertainty.

Evidence supporting the assessment

• The September 16, 2026 FOMC statement raised the target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% by a unanimous 12-0 vote, stating inflation remains elevated and the action supports a timelier return to 2%; this recent unanimous hike signals momentum toward further tightening rather than a pause.

  S6 · www.federalreserve.gov

• Governor Barr stated inflation is above the 2% target and not clearly trending toward target in a timely way, that risks to inflation have increased while labor market risks receded, and that in his base case further policy adjustments are likely needed; this directly supports another hike in October.

  S4 · www.federalreserve.gov

• PCE price index rose 3.4% y/y and core PCE 3.0% y/y in August 2026, well above the 2% target, keeping pressure on the FOMC to tighten further rather than hold.

  S1 · www.bea.gov

• The Q2 2026 PCE price index rose 5.0% and core PCE 3.3% (annualized), and the gross domestic purchases price index rose 5.6%, showing broad inflationary pressure that argues against a pause.

  S3 · www.bea.gov

Counter-evidence & limitations

• August 2026 core PCE rose only 0.2% m/m and headline PCE 0.3% m/m; the monthly core pace is closer to target than the 3.0% y/y rate, which could give the FOMC reason to pause rather than hike again in October.

  S1 · www.bea.gov

• Barr notes monthly inflation prints have been highly volatile and that only two months of data over the past 20 months were consistent with 2% core PCE inflation; this volatility and lack of a clear trend could argue for holding rates steady at the October meeting to gather more data.

  S2 · www.federalreserve.gov

• Q2 2026 real GDP grew 2.2% (revised up), with real final sales to private domestic purchasers up 4.6%, indicating solid growth; a resilient economy reduces urgency for immediate further tightening, supporting a possible pause.

  S3 · www.bea.gov

What could change the answer

• Release of September 2026 Personal Income and Outlays on October 29, 2026 (after the FOMC meeting) — not available to the FOMC for the October decision.
• Any FOMC communications or speeches between September 30 and October 27, 2026 that signal the likely October decision.
• The FOMC statement and implementation note after the October 27-28, 2026 meeting, which is the resolution source.

Uncertainty & resolution caveats

• No source provides the FOMC's October 2026 decision or any forward guidance specific to that meeting; the September statement and speeches are the latest available as of 2026-09-30.
• The September PCE report (for September 2026) is scheduled for release October 29, 2026, after the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, so the FOMC will not have that data; the August report is the latest inflation data available to them.
• The market resolves on the upper bound of the target range; a 12.5bp change would round up to 25bp, but no source indicates such a scenario.
• Barr's September 23 speech references a hike 'last week' (the September 16 meeting), confirming the recent tightening, but his October vote is not known.
• The probability estimate is subjective and not a calibrated confidence interval; the range is wide due to limited forward-looking evidence.

Source trail