Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$311.9K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCSep 30, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Sep 30, 2024
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Church of St. Macarius in Toretsk located on Hrushevskoho Vulytsia by Septmeber 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The church will be considered captured if any part of building is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the church, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Church Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Toretsk+Church+Location.png Toretsk Location (zoomed): https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Toretsk+Zoomed.png Toretsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Toretsk+Location.png Location on Google maps: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.3967133,37.8462825,426m/data=!3m1!1e3?authuser=0&entry=ttu The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.