Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? | Foretrace

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Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$8.8K

Liquidity$23.2K

Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2026

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds60.5%

Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

Yes60.5%Polymarket estimate

No39.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $23.2K
Deadline · UTC: Nov 4, 2026
Yes bid / ask: 60.0¢ / 61.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the winner, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards any party. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.