Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?

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24h volume$72

Total volume$6.8K

Liquidity$17.2K

Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2026

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?Accepting ordersMarket odds28.5%

Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?

Yes28.5%Polymarket estimate

No71.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $17.2K
Deadline · UTC: Nov 4, 2026
Yes bid / ask: 28.0¢ / 29.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican party nominee fails to win one or more of the Senate races listed below. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The relevant races are the currently-scheduled United States Senate races in: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida (Special), Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions. In the event that the winner of an election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that election will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.