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Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$575.7
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCSep 1, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?ClosedMarket odds100%
Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Sep 1, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August. Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count. In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.