Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty?

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Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$1.1M

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCMay 31, 2025

Price history

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds0%

Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: May 31, 2025
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On December 9, 2024, police detained Luigi Mangione in Altoona, Pennsylvania, in connection with the incident involving UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mangione pleads guilty to any charges stemming from the attack on UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on his first pleas at the arraignment - subsequent pleas will not be considered. If the arraignment has not occurred by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No". Only guilty pleas to charges directly stemming from the attack on UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson will qualify (e.g. a guilty plea to charges for possession of a Fake ID will NOT qualify). The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.