Will Haley win the Iowa Caucus?

Foretrace AI research

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24h volume$0

Total volume$10K

Liquidity$0

Event end date · UTCJan 15, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Will Haley win the Iowa Caucus?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $0
Deadline · UTC: Jan 15, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nikki Haley wins the greatest share of apportioned delegates in the 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Trump ties for the greatest share of apportioned delegates, the popular vote will be used as a tiebreaker. Namely, if Haley ties for the greatest share of apportioned delegates and has the higher final popular vote number, the market resolves to "Yes", and if Haley ties for the greatest share of apportioned delegates and doesn't have the higher final popular vote number, the market resolves to "No". If no 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses take place, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.