Will either candidate concede in November?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$135.7K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCNov 30, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds100%

Will either candidate concede in November?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Nov 30, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the Republican or Democratic presidential candidate formally concedes the 2024 US presidential election election by November 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A concession is defined as an unambiguous public statement which acknowledges that the candidate lost the 2024 US presidential election, will not be the next President, or which acknowledges the victory of an opponent. If a candidate makes these acknowledgements while also claiming that the election was rigged, or that there was fraud, this will still qualify as a concession. Only public statements from the conceding candidate will qualify. Reports of private conversations, e.g. if the candidate called the victor and conceded over the phone, will not count.