
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a white man wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. vice president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://www.democrats.org. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 5:20:36 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.
A research report should explain the odds, challenge the thesis, and show what could change the answer.
This event is available to explore. Closed markets do not generate new forecasts.