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Will Big Beautiful Bill cap gambling loss deductions?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$39.9K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCJul 31, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds100%
Will Big Beautiful Bill cap gambling loss deductions?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jul 31, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next reconciliation bill Donald Trump signs into law imposes a cap on the deductibility of gambling losses—such as limiting deductible gambling losses to 90% of actual losses—by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions (e.g. certain types of gambling activities or taxpayers are excluded from the cap) will still qualify, as long as the primary effect of the provision is to limit the deductibility of gambling losses to less than 100% of actual losses. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.