Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$211.8

Liquidity$209.2

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?Accepting ordersMarket odds67.5%

Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?

Yes67.5%Polymarket estimate

No32.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $209.2
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 46.0¢ / 89.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement. This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.