KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

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24h volume$65

Total volume$273.2K

Liquidity$14.1K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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Accepting ordersMarket odds6.5%

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

Yes6.5%Polymarket estimate

No93.6%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $14.1K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 6.0¢ / 6.9¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.