
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for Commissioner of Food and Drug Administration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Balaji Srinivasan, Jr. for Commissioner of Food and Drug Administration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates David Friedberg for Commissioner of Food and Drug Administration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Nicole Shanahan for Commissioner of Food and Drug Administration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Stephen Hahn for Commissioner of Food and Drug Administration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Scott Gottlieb for Commissioner of Food and Drug Administration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Jim O'Neill for Commissioner of Food and Drug Administration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Joseph Gulfo for Commissioner of Food and Drug Administration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Marty Makary for Commissioner of Food and Drug Administration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Person D for Commissioner of Food and Drug Administration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may be updated in the future to replace Person D with one of the potential nominees. This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Person E for Commissioner of Food and Drug Administration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may be updated in the future to replace Person E with one of the potential nominees. This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates someone other than any of the named candidates in the group for FDA Commissioner by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve at the time of Trump's nomination, at which point if the nominee is none of the named candidates in this market's group, it will resolve to "Yes." This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for this position - if Trump nominates another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 3:45:13 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.