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Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 5 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$225.1
Total volume$20.8K
Liquidity$6.2K
Event end date · UTCFeb 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
6th or higherAccepting ordersMarket odds6%
Will 2026 rank 6th or higher among the highest domestic box office years?
Yes6%Polymarket estimate
No94%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $4.4K
- Deadline · UTC
- Feb 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 5.0¢ / 7.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final. 2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank. This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes. This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years. If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.