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When will the Bitcoin halving occur?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 2 open questions · Evidence required
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$107.6
Liquidity$670.1
Event end date · UTCJul 1, 2028
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
2 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
March 31, 2028Accepting ordersMarket odds37.5%
Will the Bitcoin halving occur by March 31, 2028?
Yes37.5%Polymarket estimate
No62.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $197.4
- Deadline · UTC
- Apr 1, 2028
- Yes bid / ask
- 6.0¢ / 69.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next Bitcoin halving occurs by the date specified in the title, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The next Bitcoin halving refers to the mining of Bitcoin block 1,050,000, the block at which the Bitcoin network’s block subsidy is next scheduled to be reduced by half. The resolution source is mempool.space (https://mempool.space), specifically the “Timestamp” value displayed on the page for block 1,050,000 once it has been mined, converted to Eastern Time. For an example of where the “Timestamp” value is displayed on a block’s page, see this earlier block: https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000001e019fb455cb292d5ba5b41ebfad92ab4e0f378e83d25. This market is based solely on the “Timestamp” value displayed on mempool.space for block 1,050,000, not on network propagation or observation times, data from third-party explorers, or unofficial sources. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source, such as another Bitcoin block explorer, or public data consistent with the Bitcoin blockchain.