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When will Israel first raid Gaza aid flotilla?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$1.2M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCOct 10, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
14 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
September 28ClosedMarket odds0%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 28 ET?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 10, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
The Global Sumud Flotilla, including its partner initiatives, announced that it will launch a Flotilla towards Gaza from Spanish ports on August 31 and Tunisian ports on September 4. More information can be found here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/31/gaza-humanitarian-flotilla-departs-barcelona-to-break-israeli-siege This market will resolve according to the date ET Israeli military or law enforcement personnel first physically board any vessel participating in the initiative, without authorization or consent from the crew or organizers. This market will resolve to "No raid" if no qualifying raid is conducted by October 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Escorting, shadowing, or issuing warnings without boarding does not count. Boarding with the crew’s consent also will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.