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When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$17.2K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCNov 30, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
2 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
November 15ClosedMarket odds100%
Will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in by November 15?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 30, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
Adelita Grijalva, a Democrat who won the September 23, 2025, special election for Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, holds the modern record for the longest delay between election and swearing-in to the U.S. House. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adelita Grijalva is officially sworn in as the member of the U.S. House of Representatives for Arizona’s 7th Congressional District by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, Adelita Grijalva must have publicly and officially taken the oath of office administered by the Speaker of the House or a designated presiding officer during a recognized House session within this market’s timeframe, or otherwise had a House-recognized off-floor oath administered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. House of Representatives or the Office of the Speaker; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.