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What will Trump say during his Independence Day remarks on July 4?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$1M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCJul 4, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
16 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
America / American 35+ClosedMarket odds0%
Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jul 4, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech at an Independence Day celebration on July 4. You can find more information on that here: https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word comprised of two full words in common usage will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by July 4, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about the main speech Trump gives at the named event. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of this event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events.