
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
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This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "abortion" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "abortion" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the deliberate termination of a human pregnancy. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "Tampon" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "tampon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the feminine hygiene product. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "Trump" 20 or more times at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Trump" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "Kamala", "Harris", or "Kamala Harris" 15 or more times at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Usage of the full name "Kamala Harris" will only count as a single mention. Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Kamala" or "Harris" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "abortion" 5 or more times at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "abortion" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the deliberate termination of a human pregnancy. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "couch" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "couch" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a piece of furniture primarily used for sitting on. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "coach" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "coach" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a leader who trains and guides a team/individuals toward success. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "teacher" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "teacher" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to an educator who imparts knowledge and skills to students. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "weird "or "weirdo" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "weird "or "weirdo" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a person who behaves unusually or oddly. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "football" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "football" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the a high-impact American sport with a pointed ball. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "VC" or "venture capitalist" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "VC" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a person who funds startups with high-growth potential in exchange for equity. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "racist" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "racist" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a person who discriminates or holds prejudice based on race. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "Yale" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Yale" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the university in New Haven. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "Haitian" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Haitian" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the demonym for people from the country of Haiti. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "dog" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "dog" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a domesticated carnivorous mammal that typically has a long snout, an acute sense of smell, nonretractable claws, and a barking, howling, or whining voice. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "Obamacare", "ACA" or "Affordable Care Act" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Obamacare" or "ACA" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the Affordable Care Act. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "concept" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "concept" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to an abstract idea or general notion. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "gun" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "gun" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a weapon designed to discharge bullets. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "Trump" 30 or more times at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Trump" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "Kamala", "Harris", or "Kamala Harris" 30 or more times at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Usage of the full name "Kamala Harris" will only count as a single mention. Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Kamala" or "Harris" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "Israel" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Israel" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the country in the Middle East. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "Helene" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Helene" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the recent NOAA-named hurricane. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksTim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walz says "Iran" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Iran" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the country in the Middle East. If no such debate in the 2024 election cycle happens by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or if either candidate drops out of the race, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the debate.
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