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US x Iran ceasefire before August?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$240.8K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCJul 31, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds0%
US x Iran ceasefire before August?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jul 31, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.2¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between US and Iran, between June 21 and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET Unilateral statements from either Iran or US that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, US, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between US and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from US and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and US has been reached will suffice.