US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$770.7K

Liquidity$0

Event end date · UTCJul 31, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $0
Deadline · UTC: Jul 31, 2025
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.3¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by July 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.