U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?

U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?

Liquidity

Unavailable

Deadline · UTC

Dec 31, 2025

Yes bid / ask

— / 0.1¢

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Resolution rules

On November 4th, U.S. Department of Transportation secretary Sean Duffy said that if the government shutdown continues, the federal government may have to “close certain parts of the airspace” due to consequences of the shutdown. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-warns-mass-chaos-may-need-close-some-airspace-if-government-shutdown-2025-11-04/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Federal Aviation Authority (FAA), or any other federal agency formally closes or suspends part of U.S. civilian airspace during the current U.S. government shutdown, due to circumstances clearly caused by the shutdown. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the relevant government action must order closure or suspension of civilian airspace or flight operations, affect at least one major U.S. airport or airspace region in its entirety, and explicitly reference circumstances clearly caused by the current U.S. government shutdown as the reason for the action. Circumstances qualifying as clearly caused by the shutdown include staffing shortages of air traffic controllers or other essential air travel employees due to a lack of funding caused by the government shutdown. Routine delays and disruptions caused mainly by weather, technical, or security issues do not count. Suspensions or closures due to emergencies which are not caused by the government shutdown do not count. Closures, suspensions, or cancellations due to circumstances caused by the current U.S. government shutdown, but which are not tied to federal government action, do not count. If the current U.S. government shutdown ends and no such U.S. civilian airspace closure has been declared, this market will resolve to “No”. The shutdown will be considered to have ended if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, or other federal agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.