US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volume$216.1

Total volume$1.1K

Liquidity$169.8

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?Accepting ordersMarket odds62.5%

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Yes62.5%Polymarket estimate

No37.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $169.8
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 62.0¢ / 63.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.