Trump flips Kamala on 538 before election?

Foretrace AI research

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$248.8K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds100%

Trump flips Kamala on 538 before election?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Nov 4, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on any date between October 9, and November 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve once the next datapoint after a flip occurs becomes available, or otherwise once finalized figures are available for every date within this market's range. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines under "Win probability". The resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Harris.