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Trump conviction declared a mistrial?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$116.3K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds0%
Trump conviction declared a mistrial?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 4, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.1¢ / 2.4¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
On June 7 it was reported a person posted the comment “My cousin is a juror and says Trump is getting convicted” a day before the conviction, leading to speculation the conviction could be declared a mistrial (see https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1799190574353756499). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump hush money case is declared a mistrial before sentencing. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no sentence is rendered by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.