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Trump ≥12% in Selzer Iowa poll?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$5.6K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds0%
Trump ≥12% in Selzer Iowa poll?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 4, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.8¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump's polling margin between himself and the second place candidate is 12% or greater in Anne Selzer's final Iowa 2024 presidential election poll. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no Selzer poll is published by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for the market will be the final Selzer Iowa 2024 presidential election poll.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 4:11:06 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.