
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksFor the 5 consecutive weeks prior to market creation, the official S&P 500 Index closing price on the final trading day of the week has been lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price on the final trading day of the previous week. The official S&P 500 Index closing price on March 27, 2026 was 6368.85. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official S&P 500 Index closing price on April 2, 2026 is greater than or equal to 6368.85. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the April 2, 2026 trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published for the S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If April 2, 2026 has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid published price as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 2:24:08 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.