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Serbia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 9 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$202.9
Total volume$2.2K
Liquidity$35.9K
Event end date · UTCOct 25, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
9 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
United Serbia 10%+Accepting ordersMarket odds21%
Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by 10% or more?
Yes21%Polymarket estimate
No79%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $20.7K
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 25, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 19.0¢ / 23.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two electoral lists in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place electoral lists. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two lists receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia attributes them to the named electoral list. Vote percentages attributed to other lists or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a list other than Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia or Student List – Students Win receives the most valid votes, this market will resolve to “Another list wins”. If two or more lists tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another list wins”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).