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Precipitation in NYC in October?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 6 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$2.3K
Total volume$4K
Liquidity$4.5K
Event end date · UTCJan 8, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<3"Accepting ordersMarket odds56.5%
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in October?
Yes56.5%Polymarket estimate
No43.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $1.5K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 8, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 55.0¢ / 58.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between October 1 and October 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for October 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of October 2026. If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.