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Precipitation in Hong Kong in October?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 7 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$9.3K
Total volume$21K
Liquidity$6.2K
Event end date · UTCJan 8, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
7 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<20mmAccepting ordersMarket odds1.3%
Will Hong Kong have less than 20mm of precipitation in October?
Yes1.3%Polymarket estimate
No98.8%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $1.1K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 8, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.5¢ / 2.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between October 1 and October 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in October 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.