Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volume$35

Total volume$159.1K

Liquidity$12.9K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds11.5%

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Yes11.5%Polymarket estimate

No88.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $12.9K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 10.0¢ / 13.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.