OpenAI Sora public release before May?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$26.7K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCApr 30, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

OpenAI Sora public release before May?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Apr 30, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On February 15, OpenAI announced a new AI model designed to generate video from text, Sora. This model is initially being made available to red teamers, however there is heavy speculation over when it will be made available to the general public. You can see OpenAI's statements on Sora here: https://openai.com/sora This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's Sora model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sora must be launched and publicly accessible, which includes open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, for this market to resolve to "Yes". Closed beta or an otherwise private launch will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.