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October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 4 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$104.1
Total volume$193.1
Liquidity$3.6K
Event end date · UTCNov 29, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
4 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
1st hottestAccepting ordersMarket odds78.5%
Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
Yes78.5%Polymarket estimate
No21.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $512.2
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 29, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 68.0¢ / 89.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.