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October 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$863.5K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCOct 31, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<1.17ClosedMarket odds0%
Will the October 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.17°C?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 31, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase of less than 1.17°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of less than 1.17°C for October 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for October 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "October" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2024 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".