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NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 9 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$152.3
Total volume$20.8K
Liquidity$69.6K
Event end date · UTCNov 8, 2026
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Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
9 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Labour 15%+Accepting ordersMarket odds9%
Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 15% or more?
Yes9%Polymarket estimate
No91%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $414
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 8, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 1.7¢ / 16.3¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.