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Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 2 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$145
Total volume$278.5K
Liquidity$35.6K
Event end date · UTCApr 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
2 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
December 31, 2026Accepting ordersMarket odds10%
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?
Yes10%Polymarket estimate
No90%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $22.2K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 9.0¢ / 11.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.