
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Chrystia Freeland. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Dominic LeBlanc. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Mélanie Joly. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Mark Carney. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Anita Anand. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Francois-Philippe Champagne. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Sean Fraser. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Jaime Battiste. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Karina Gould. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Ruby Dhalla. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Frank Baylis. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Person E. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may be updated to replace Person E with a potential candidate. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is someone other than anyone named in this market. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 11:54:39 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.