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Next DeepSeek Flash released by...?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 2 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$519.8
Total volume$2.7K
Liquidity$517.7
Event end date · UTCNov 30, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
2 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
October 31Accepting ordersMarket odds17.5%
Next DeepSeek Flash released by October 31, 2026?
Yes17.5%Polymarket estimate
No82.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $162.9
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 31, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 15.0¢ / 20.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if DeepSeek's next Flash model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes "DeepSeek" and "Flash," and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.2-Flash, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Flash would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro, DeepSeek-OCR, or DeepSeek-V4-Flash-Vision-Exp, Pro-tier models such as DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813 or DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, and the existing DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash (released September 10, 2026), including any open-weight re-release, snapshot, or re-pointing of the deepseek-flash API alias to it, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier or date designation; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. If DeepSeek releases a single unified successor without tier naming, it will qualify if it replaces or serves DeepSeek's lite or Flash endpoint or is positioned as DeepSeek's fast, low-cost model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.