
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Pope after Pope Francis is announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Catholic Church, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 3:39:21 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.
A research report should explain the odds, challenge the thesis, and show what could change the answer.
This event is available to explore. Closed markets do not generate new forecasts.