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Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required
24h volume$58.4
Total volume$944.9K
Liquidity$24K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
December 31, 2026Accepting ordersMarket odds6.9%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?
Yes6.9%Polymarket estimate
No93.1%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $24.2K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 6.3¢ / 7.5¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.