Luigi Mangione plea deal in 2025?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$22.1K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds0%

Luigi Mangione plea deal in 2025?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Dec 31, 2025
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione formally agrees to a plea bargain for any of his murder or terrorism charges by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As they stand on February 21, qualifying charges are: Federal - Murder through use of a firearm State - Murder in the first degree, murder in the second degree as a crime of terrorism, murder in the second degree If all of these charges are dropped or dismissed, or otherwise changed to charges that involve neither murder, manslaughter, nor terrorism, this market will resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open to consider further retrials, only resolving once this market's resolution date has passed. If a verdict is reached on all named charges, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the ruling court in this case, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.