Kurds declare independence from Iran?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$160K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJun 30, 2026

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds0%

Kurds declare independence from Iran?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jun 30, 2026
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.