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How many seats will New Popular Front coalition win in French Election?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$32.8K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCJul 7, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
7 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<100ClosedMarket odds0%
Will New Popular Front win less than 100 seats?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jul 7, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the New Popular Front coalition (NFP, Nouveau Front populaire) wins less than 100 seats in the National Assembly as a result of the next French legislative election. If voting in the next French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the NFP coalition in the National Assembly as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior. Any coalitions made with other parties or elected deputies after the results of the election are reported will not be considered for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information published through the website of the French Ministry of the Interior (https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/), however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.