Elon out of Trump administration before July?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$1.4M

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJun 30, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds100%

Elon out of Trump administration before July?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jun 30, 2025
Yes bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On February 17, the White House stated that Musk is a Senior Advisor to the President and an employee in the White House Office (see: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69638651/24/1/state-of-new-mexico-v-musk/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Elon Musk will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of Musk’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. Changes to Musk’s position within the Trump administration (e.g. if he is named administrator of DOGE), will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.