Trump positive favorability on inauguration day?

Foretrace AI research

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$327.6K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJan 20, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Trump positive favorability on inauguration day?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jan 20, 2025
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Donald Trump’s favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than his unfavorable rating on January 20, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify. The favorability rating for Jan 20 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for Jan 20 remains unavailable, the nearest previous favorability will be used. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable", and the orange “unfavorable” trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market - only the difference between favorable and unfavorable ratings that they report up to one decimal point is considered. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after January 20, 2025 is published. If no such data point is available by January 24, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recent data point prior to January 20, 2025. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.