Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volume$20

Total volume$20

Liquidity$7.4K

Event end date · UTCOct 4, 2026

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ETAccepting ordersMarket odds49.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Up49.5%Polymarket estimate

Down50.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $7.4K
Deadline · UTC: Oct 4, 2026
Up bid / ask: 49.0¢ / 50.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.