BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$815.1K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCFeb 23, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Feb 23, 2025
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice (BSW, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit) wins 5% or more of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. If voting in the next German parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).