Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$403K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCDec 13, 2024

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds100%

Luigi Mangione manifesto released by Friday?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Dec 13, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On December 9, Luigi Mangione was detained as person of interest in the ongoing manhunt related to Brian Thompson. It has been reported that at the time of detainment, Mangione was in possession of a manifesto. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the manifesto written by Luigi Mangione is made public by 11:59 PM ET on December 13, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The entire manifesto must be released for this market to resolve to "Yes". If the manifesto is released with redactions, it will still count. However mere snippets or quotes will not count to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source will be official information from law enforcement agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.