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What will Luigi Mangione say in his manifesto?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$277.7K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCDec 13, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
14 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Crypto/BitcoinClosedMarket odds0%
Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be in the manifesto?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Dec 31, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
On December 9, Police detained Luigi Mangione as a person of interest in the Brian Thompson case. It has been reported he was carrying a manifesto. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the manifesto contains the word "crypto" or "Bitcoin". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Misspellings of the term will NOT count toward a “Yes” resolution. Compound words will count as long as "crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrency-related" counts). This market will resolve based on the text of the manifesto. Either the full release of the text, or direct quotes from the text published in credible reports will qualify. If the manifesto has not been released by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, and credible reporting has not quoted this term, this market will resolve to “No”.